ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENDAPATAN JASA SEWA MOBIL JENAZAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE 5 PERIODE PADA PERSAHABATAN SOSIAL KEMALANGAN
Keywords:
Weighted Moving Average, Forecasting, MAPE, sales predictionAbstract
Abstrack
This study forecasts hearse rental revenue at Persahabatan Sosial Kemalangan using the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method with a five-period window and weights 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The data used are monthly hearse rental revenues from June 2025 to May 2026, based on Excel records. The data already contain transaction nominal values, including in-city rental prices and out-of-city rental prices according to destination; therefore, the forecasting process is performed directly on monthly revenue values. The WMA calculation produces a June 2026 forecast of Rp4,043,333. The error evaluation results show MAD of Rp1,235,238, MSE of Rp1,895,317,460,317, and MAPE of 39.57%. These results indicate that WMA can provide an initial estimate, but the forecast should still be interpreted carefully because the data fluctuate each month.
Keyword : Forecasting; Weighted Moving Average; hearse rental; sales prediction; MAPE
Abstrak
Penelitian ini meramalkan pendapatan jasa sewa mobil jenazah pada Persahabatan Sosial Kemalangan menggunakan metode Weighted Moving Average (WMA) 5 periode dengan bobot 1, 2, 3, 4, dan 5. Data yang digunakan adalah pendapatan sewa mobil per bulan dari Juni 2025 sampai Mei 2026 berdasarkan rekap Excel. Data tersebut sudah berisi nominal transaksi, termasuk harga sewa mobil dalam kota dan luar kota sesuai daerah tujuan, sehingga proses peramalan dilakukan langsung pada nominal pendapatan bulanan. Hasil perhitungan WMA menghasilkan prediksi pendapatan sewa mobil bulan Juni 2026 sebesar Rp4.043.333. Evaluasi kesalahan menghasilkan MAD sebesar Rp1.235.238, MSE sebesar Rp1.895.317.460.317, dan MAPE sebesar 39,57%. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa WMA dapat memberikan estimasi awal, tetapi hasil prediksi tetap perlu ditafsirkan hati-hati karena data pendapatan mengalami fluktuasi setiap bulan.
Kata kunci: Peramalan; Weighted Moving Average; sewa mobil jenazah; prediksi penjualan; MAPE
